Do you remember
the good old days when you can enjoy a cool refreshing Tab, the subways were
covered with street art and you get through a news cycle without something
‘unprecedented’ happening? The Locks
remembers and also remembers how the Locks’ top locks have fared over the last
10 years. Throwing out 2011 (slipped
saddle) and 2012 (when East Coast bias clouded judgement) the Locks have been
solid.
Past JCC Locks:
2017: Always
Dreaming – finish: 1st – odds: 4.70-1
2016: Mohaymen
– 4th - 11.80-1
2015: Firing
Line -- 2nd – 9.50-1
2014: Danza – 3rd
– 8.70-1
2013: Orb – 1st
– 5.40-1
2012: Daddy
Nose Best – 10th – 14.00-1
2011:
Archarcharch – 15th – 12.50-1
2010: Ice Box– 2nd
– 11.70 -1
2009: Musket
Man – 3rd – 19.00-1
2008: Big Brown
– 1st – 2.40-1
Buoyed by these results, the Locks are going to continue
with the same strategy looking at Winners, Runners and Conformers:
Winners: Horses
that haven’t done much wrong in their career. Looking for horses that have not
run out of the money without good excuse and if at all possible have at least 3
wins.
Runners: Looking
for those horses that are still running with speed at the end of a race.
Conformers: Looking
for horses that are not trying to re-write the history books
Winners
Winning in Derby preps is important in determining the
winner of the Derby... on average since 1993, Derby winners came in with more
than 3 wins on an average of 7 starts and has been in the money close to 6
times in those starts. In those years there was only Giacamo that had come in
with only 1 win but he rewarded those that took the gamble on him at
50-1. Average odds of all Derby winners coming in with only 1 or 2 wins
have been 20-1 (Animal Kingdom the 2011 winner who came into the Derby with
only 2 wins was 20.90 to 1). Accepting
low odds on those with 1 or 2 wins is not in the Locks winning strategy.
Runners
As a student of the late Dr. Sartin, the Locks puts a lot
of merit on the fact that "pace makes the race". Dr. Sartin, the
father of pace handicapping, is a guy that lived in his mom’s basement (not
that there is anything wrong about that) and crunched numbers of 1000s of
races, died young from a diet that didn’t including anything but 2 liter Cokes,
Hostess Snowballs, and Cheez Whiz & Saltines. In pace handicapping, how the
race unfolds not just how the race ends is important. To determine how the
Derby will unfold there is a need to pore through past performances and analyze
splits and positions at those splits.
From 1993-2013, average position of Kentucky Derby
winners after 1/2 mile is 7.25 lengths off the pace, 3/4m – 6.25 lengths, 1mile
– 2.1 lengths.
During that same period, the median finishing position of
Kentucky Derby horses that have been either 1st or 2nd on the pace after the
1st call are 13th and 14th place, respectively. Using the same data,
there have been only 1 wire-to-wire winners and no others that were less than 2
lengths off the pace after the first call.
But the last 4 years, we have seen speedier horses
prevail with average position off pace of: 1/2 mile: 2 lengths, ¾ mile: 1
length, 1 mile, on or near lead.
Armed with those facts and also knowing that Promises
Fulfilled, Magnum Moon, Justify, Flameaway and Noble Indy will want to be on or
near the lead...the 2 horses that the Locks has identified as the 2 best in the
field Audible and Mendelsohnn will benefit from a quickened pace set by the
front runners. Splits of :48+, 1:12+
like allowed in the Arkansas and Santa Anita Derby would doom the Locks but
expectation is that there is enough speed in the race to set up for the Locks.
Conformers
The Locks enjoys history and any reader of the Locks in
previous years very well knows that The Locks was a half a semester of Russian
History shy of being a history minor at Georgetown University. Given the fact
that our country has been put in the back pocket of Vladmir Putin perhaps I
should have spent more time in that class rather than learning Russian by
drinking a college-students version of a White Russian (Yoo-hoo and Cossack
Vodka). The Locks does like to look at history when betting the Derby as there
is 139 years of data already accumulated and can give you some clues on how to
bet....some facts and history to consider when betting:
Last-race-C Speed
Index figures for the last 21 years have been quite telling-- only 3 horses
with sub-100 CSIs have won and those horses were Charismatic in ’99 that
won going off at 31-1 and Giacomo in 2005 who won at 50-1 --- Orb is sole
exception of being the Derby favorite and winner despite a sub-100 CSI.
There were 2 others with last race CSIs of just 100 that also rewarded
the risk, Mine that Bird in 2009, 50-1 and Funny Cide in 2003 at 13-1. The
other 12 Kentucky Derby winners in last 16 years averaged a last race CSI of
105.85. This year 10 horses in the 20 horse field have last race sub-100
CSIs.
In the same 21
year period, only Mine that Bird had won the Derby after failing to register a
Brisnet speed figure of 100+ in either of their final two prep races. This year,
only the following have 100+ Brisnet figs in their last 2 races: Magnum Moon,
Audible, Noble Indy, Vino Rosso, Bolt d’Oro, Enticed, Justify, Promises
Fulfilled, Lone Sailor, Hofburg.
Homebreds have
been quite successful recently with 9 out of the last 15 and 5 out of the last
8 Derby winners being owned by the same people that bred them. In the 2018 Kentucky Derby, Good Magic, Noble
Indy, Enticed, Bravazo, Hofberg, and Firenze Fire are all homebreds.
Derby horses
names starting with E, I, K, Q, U, V, X, Y & Z have not been very
successful with a record of 10 wins out of 186 starters (4.8%). Enticed is looking to buck the trend. Those
horses whose name begins with A have had better luck with winning at 11.45%
clip. Audible is the only “A” horse in
the field.
Audible (NY), Flameaway
(ON), and Firenze Fire (FL) are the only non-Kentucky breds Derby starters. Funny Cide in 2003 was the last and only New
York-bred Kentucky Derby winner. NY-breds since 1966 have an average finish of
11th place. Florida-breds
have been more successful with 6 Derby winners including Silver Charm in 1997
and Triple Crown winner Affirmed. Also 5 Florida-breds have hit the board in
the last 15 years. The last non-US bred horse to win the Derby was in 1983
which was Canadian bred Sunny’s Halo – the only other Canadian-bred winner was
Northern Dancer. Interesting to note the
influence of Northern Dancer in today’s thoroughbred breeding – every Kentucky
Derby starter has roots within 5 generations to Northern Dancer.
Since 1933 when
Brokers Tip won the Derby in his maiden race, the last date a Derby winner broke
their maiden was January 25th. Justify (February 18th)
and Hofburg (March 3rd) looking to change that. Actually Brokers Tip
was the last Derby winner that broke its maiden at Churchill Downs, Free Drop Willy, Promises Fulfilled, and
Bravazo broke their maiden under the Twin Spires.
Since 1914, no
Derby winner has broke its maiden at Monmouth Park (Firenze Fire).
Since 1940, no
horse that raced in Ireland (Mendelssohn) has been draped in a blanket of
roses.
Currently the
streak of Derby winners who come into the race off a win their last prep is
7. The longest such streak based on data
from 1940.
Since 1952, no
Derby winner has come in worse than 4th in the final prep race
before the Derby, Promises Fulfilled (9th Florida Derby), Bravazo (8th
Louisiana Derby) have had clunkers in their last race.
1 Firenze
Fire 50-1
Owner: Mr.
Amore Stable
Trainer: J.
Servis
Jockey: Paco
Lopez
Sire : Poseidion’s
Warrior $6,500
Dam: My Every
Wish by Langfuhr
Race Record:
9:4:1:0
CSI
Figures:92-97-102
Firenze Fire is
literally the Italian Stallion. Owned by
Ron Lombardi CEO of SportsCare Institute and one that embraces his Italian
heritage by self-proclaiming himself, Mr. Amore. Silks are in the Italian colors with two
horseshoes creating a heart – That’s Amore!
Firenze Fire is one of Mr Amore’s homebreds and stamped himself as one
of the best 2yos with victories in both the Sanford and the Champagne before
throwing a clunker in the BC Juvenile.
Firenze Fire has done something that no other horse in the field has
done – FF has raced twice at 9 furlongs with decent finishes. But looking at his races further – in the 3
races FF has run at distances longer than 8 furlongs - has sub 80 late pace
Brisnet figures – the Locks likes to see triple digits. Also FF was nominated to the Pat Day Mile
which gives indication that the connections feels that 8 furlongs may be a
better distance for FF – the Locks agrees.
2 Free
Drop Billy 30-1
Owner: Albaugh
Family Stables LLC
Trainer: Dale
Romans
Jockey: Robby Albarado
Sire : Union
Rags $60,000
Dam: Trensa by
Giant’s Causeway
Race Record:
8:2.3.2
CSI Figures:
100-99-105
Free Drop Billy
has raced against 9 other Derby runners a total of 14 times - the most out of
any Derby entrant but Free Drop Billy had only out-placed the other Derby
horses 5 times while the other horses outplaced FDB 9 times. Only real clunker was last years BC
Juvenile. With a late running style
anticipate FDB to be in the top dozen but the speed figs put this one several
lengths back.
3 Promises
Fulfilled 30-1
Owner: Robert J
Baron
Trainer: Dale
Romans
Jockey: Corey
Lanerie
Sire : Shackleford $20,000
Dam: Marquee
Delivery by Marquetry
Race Record:
5:3.0.1
CSI Figures:
66-106-98
Promises
Fulfilled is the Pink-Women’s-Sized-Medium-Tom-Brady Jersey[i]
pick of this year’s field. A horse that
apparently is unable to be rated as has been on lead for each of its 5 starts
at the first call. Regular rider Robby Albarado jumped off this mount for
another 30-1. Although won the Fountain
of Youth Stakes, a key Derby prep that has produced Kentucky Derb winners did
so on the lead on a dawdling pace. With
a cavalry of 20 horses in the Derby won’t get such luxury.
4 Flameaway 30-1
Owner: John C.
Oxley
Trainer: Mark Casse
Jockey: Jose
Lezcano
Sire : Scat
Daddy $100,000
Dam: Vulcan
Rose by Fusaichi Pegasus
Race
Record: 9:5.2.0
CSI Figures:
102-96-103
Flameaway is
definition of versatility – has won on poly track, on dirt, on turf, and on the
mud. Beyond that versatility: Only horse in the field with a Kentucky Derby
winning dam-sire. Only horse in field with 5 wins. Oilman owner John Oxley
campaigned Kentucky Derby winner Monarchos.
Has done not much wrong in last 4 races but running style may compromise
chances to ultimately place in top 3 in the Derby. May get more consideration if track is wet.
5 Audible 8-1
Owner: Winstar Farm LLC, China Horse Club
International
Trainer: Todd
Pletcher
Jockey: Javier
Castellano
Sire : Into
Mischief $100,000
Dam: Blue Devil
Bel by Gilded Time
Race
Record: 5:4.0.1
CSI
Figures:101-111-106
Audible is the
2018 Lock. It hits the boxes as being a winner, running fast at the end of the
race and not bucking history. The Locks
likes these facts:
- Castellano chooses Audible over Bolt D’Oro
- Done nothing wrong in career only
blemish was a fast closing 3rd in debut race
- Very good final and closing time figs –
CSIs, Brisnet, Brisnet late pace.
- Did drift at end of Florida Derby but so
did Nyquist ahead of its Ky Derby win – Gulfstream is a notoriously tiring
track.
- Pedigree doesn’t necessarily say that it
is classic winner but has already outrun its pedigree
6 Good
Magic 12-1
Owner: E Five Racing Thoroughbreds and Stonestreet
Stables
Trainer: Chad
Brown
Jockey: Jose
Ortiz
Sire : Curlin
$150,000
Dam: Glinda the
Good by Hard Spun
Race Record:
5:2.2.1
CSI Figures:
104-101-102
E Five Racing
stable is not owned by a poor fielding 3rd baseman but by is named
for owner Bob Edwards a pharmaceutical executive and the 5 members of his
family. With over $1.8m in earnings, this million dollar yearling purchase has
already paid for himself++ but being a million dollar+ yearling has not always
equaled success -- look at these facts.
A study of 427 yearlings purchased for $1million or more yielded only 11
G1 winners (2.6%), 25.5% of these $1million babies never raced and a further
15.2% never won a race. In total these
427 high priced yearling cost $770 million but only earned $52 million on the
track. Of these 427, only Fusiachi
Pegasus won the Kentucky Derby. In the
Derby in total there have been 18 $1m+ auction purchases that have run and the
average finish place for these have been 11th. Good Magic was the 2
yo champion which is another fact that doesn’t necessarily guarantee success in
the Derby – since 1980 only Street Sense in 2007 and American Pharoah in 2015
have won the Derby after being 2yo champion.
Slow finish to the Blue Grass perhaps is the flaw that will have the
Locks on others.
7 Justify 3-1
Owner: WinStar Farm LLC, China Horse Club
International, SF Racing LLC
Trainer: Bob
Baffert
Jockey: Mike E.
Smith
Sire : Scat Daddy
$100,000
Dam: Stage
Magic by Ghostzapper
Race Record:
3:3.0.0
CSI Figures
(Last 3 Races): 109-112-107
Justify is
attempting to become the first Derby winner since Apollo in 1882 to not race as
a 2yo – even Apollo’s victory is tainted in that it was reported that owners of
Runnymeade the 4/5 favorite took money to lose the race. The record of Derby starters since 1937 that
didn’t race as 2yos is 61 starts, 0 wins, 3 2nds, 5 3rds with Curlin and
Bodemeister notable horses to fail to win. Also add that looking at data back
50 years, there is no other Derby winner that has raced at only 1 track before
coming to the Kentucky Derby. So is
Jusify simply a horse-for-the-course at Santa Anita? The El Segundo Sand that Santa Anita uses as
a track surface differs from almost every other track for instance Churchill
Downs has a sandy loam cushion main track with a 12-inch clay base. With the
questions of ability to win out of the way – lets look at Justify’s
merits. The speed figures calculators
love Jusify – 3 triple digit Beyers, C-Speed Index and Brisnet – no other horse
in the field can tout that. Looking at
lightly raced superhorses coming into their signature big win such as
Arrogate’s Travers Stakes, Big Brown’s Kentucky Derby – each of these did not
come into their signature win with as good as a resume as Justify. But for as many Arrogates and Big Browns,
there are super-horses that failed to be – Arazi in 1992 (8th place)
Silky Sullivan in 1958 (12th), Holy Bull in 1994 (12th),
Point Given in 2001 (5th).
With odds that will likely drift even below the 3-1 morning line had to
take another as the Lock. Can’t key at such low odds but need to keep in mix.
8 Lone
Sailor 50-1
Owner: G M B
Racing
Trainer: Tom
Amoss
Jockey: James
Graham
Sire : Majestic
Warrior $17,500
Dam: Ambitious
by Mr. Greeley
Race Record:
8:1.3.1
CSI Figures:
99-99-94
Owner Gayle
Benson has been painted as a gold digger as she has built the G M B Racing
stable on the fortunes of her late husband Tom Benson. In a lawsuit brought by
Tom Benson’s children and grandchildren, its cited that Tom Benson when not of
a sound mind disowned his children while naming his 3rd wife Gayle
Benson (nee Bird) who was 20 years his junior the heir of his fortune. The recent death of Tom Benson now puts the
fortune of the New Orleans Saints, the Brow-led New Orleans Pelicans and a
controlling stake of Dixie Brewery in the hands of Gayle Benson. Lone Sailor is
a nod to the late Tom Benson who was in the Navy and was awarded the Lone
Sailor Award given to those that have distinguished themselves after their
naval career. Whether Gayle Benson is or
is not a gold digger – she has shown confidence in stitching in 3 golden crowns
(Triple Crowns?) on to her stable’s silks.
In assessing Lone Sailor’s ability to win the Kentucky Derby consider
that the colt has only won once and that goes back to September of 2017, ranks
20th out of 20 in the Brisnet Prime Power ranking and picks up a
Kentucky Derby rookie as a jockey. If
the track does come up sloppy, there may be consideration for the colt as did
put in a fairly freakish performance on the wet Saratoga track.
9 Hofburg 20-1
Owner:
Juddmonte Farms Inc.
Trainer: Bill
Mott
Jockey: Irad
Ortiz, Jr.
Sire : Tapit $300,000
Dam: Soothing
Touch by Touch Gold
Race Record:
3:1.1.0
CSI Figures:
98-99-99
Both owner
Juddmonte Farms and trainer Bill Mott are considered some of the very best in
the game but neither have found success in the elusive Kentucky Derby. Juddmonte has campaigned champions like
Arrogate and Frankel but only 3 horses have run under the Juddmonte
colors. Even though Juddmonte is without
a Kentucky Derby win, Aptitude in 2000 and Empire Maker in 2003 have had
runner-up finishes. Like Justify,
Hofberg comes in with only 3 races but only 1 win and a fast closing 2nd
in the Florida Derby. Hofburg appears to
be a very good horse (great pedigree, good early form) but is an unlikely
winner of the Derby perhaps like Empire Maker the Derby is a prep for the
Belmont Stakes.
10 My
Boy Jack 20-1
Owner: Don’t Tell
My Wife Stables and Monomoy Stables
Trainer: Keith Desourmeaux
Jockey: Kent
Desormeaux
Sire : Creative Cause $20,000
Dam: Gold N
Shaft by Mineshaft
Race Record:
10:3.3.2
CSI Figures:
99-98-100
My Boy Jack
should go off at long odds – possibly even longer than the 20-1 odds in part of
an atrocious workout this week. But looking at MBJs workout ledger – the colt
has never been up for it in the morning – has saved himself for the afternoons
when they do the running for money. MBJ
appears to be in the mold of Golden Soul (2nd 2013,34-1 ), Lookin at
Lee (2nd 2017, 33-1), Commanding Curve (2nd 2014,37-1 ),
a deep closer that picks up the place accordingly you will need a bomb closer
in your mix and this one is the one I am pegging. . Save for his maiden race – has not done
anything wrong in his races – the 7th place finish in the Breeder’s
Cup Juvenile Turf is better than the placing as was only 3 lengths behind
Mendelssohn after his jock lost his whip. MBJs past performances show improving
speed figures and good speed at the end of races including stirring finishes in
last 3 Derby preps.
For full transparency, the Locks has a
boy named Jack which may have painted differently the viability of this
horse.
11 Bolt
d’Oro 8-1
Owner: Ruis
Racing LLC
Trainer: Mick
Ruis
Jockey: Victor
Espinoza
Sire : Medaglia
d’Oro $250,000
Dam: Globe Trot
by AP Indy
CSI Figures:
106-107-97
Race Record:
6:4.1.1
Bolt d’Oro is a
nod to world record holding sprint champion Usain Bolt which may or may not be
the name the colt wants to be associated with.
Yes Usain Bolt is the fastest man in the world and has won many races in
dazzling fashion but…he also did so at sprint distances. The Kentucky Derby is far from a sprint – in
fact – it will be the furthest that these 3yos have run. So perhaps a nod to Mo Farah (Mo d’Oro??)
would have been more appropriate. This $630k purchase has regal bloodlines –
Medaglia d’Oro out of an AP Indy mare – out of the whole field – Bolt d’Oro’s
sire and broodmare sire have the longest average winning distance of their
progeny. But Bolt appears to be several
lengths behind Justify and Audible appears to be the better horse as Castellano
hopped off Bolt d’Oro to ride Audible.
This is a high qualify horse but may be concerned, as with Justify, that
only has raced on West Coast tracks and have not been training at Churchill
Downs.
12 Enticed 30-1
Owner:
Godolphin
Trainer: Kiaran
McLaughlin
Jockey: Junior
Alvarado
Sire : Medaglia
d’Oro $250,000
Dam: It’s
Tricky by Mineshaft
Race Record:
6:3.1.1
CSI Figures:
100-106-96
Godolphin has
won 267 Grade 1 races including almost every other major horse race in the
world -- but the Kentucky Derby still has remained elusive to Sheikh Mohammed.
Actually, out of all owners that have placed 11 or more starters into the
Derby, Godolphin is the most unsuccessful with a record of 11-0-0-0 with
Frosted’s 4th place finish in 2016 being the closest Sheikh Mohammed
has come to the blanket of roses. Had my
eye on Enticed since November of last year after winning the Kentucky Jockey
Club Stakes which is a 2 turn stakes at Churchill Downs. Unfortunately, that on-course experience
hasn’t translated in success in the Derby-- of 20 winners of that race that
raced in the Derby only 1 has won (Super Saver 2010) and the average finish
position of those starters was 9th.
There are some things to like about this colt including having the
pedigree to get the distance, the ability to rate and come off the pace, and
had legit excuses in not finishing better in the Wood Memorial. This could be the one that seals the win for
the Shiekh but the Locks are looking elsewhere.
13 Bravazo 50-1
Owner: Calumet Farm
Trainer: D
Wayne Lukas
Jockey: Luis Contreras
Sire : Awesome
Again $75,000
Dam: Tiz o’Gold
by Cee’s Tizzy
Race Record:
8:3.1.1
CSI Figures:78-105-111
Last time these
connections were making headlines together, you were probably wearing flannel,
listening to the Backstreet Boys while coming out of the movie theater after
watching the Waterboy. Wayne Lukas had
victories in 1998, 1995, 1996 and 1999.
Unfortunately for owner Calumet Farm, who also joins the Throwback club
with ancient Kentucky Derby wins (1941-1968), Bravazo misses on the criteria
the Locks likes to see in a Kentucky Derby contender: 3 clunkers on resume, no
triple digit Brisnet figs, no winner of the Risen Star has won the Derby etc.
No time machine will save this colts chances of Kentucky Derby victory.
14 Mendelssohn 5-1
Owner: Derrick
Smith, Mrs. John Magnier and Michael Tabor
Trainer: Aidan
O’Brien
Jockey: Ryan Moore
Sire : Scat
Daddy $100,000
Dam: Leslie’s
Lady by Tricky Creek
Race Record:
7:4.1.0
CSI
Figures: xx-xx-99
Mendelssohn,
named after the German composer Felix Mendelssohn who is best known for his
overture to a Midsummer’s Nights Dream, will become a horseplayers
First-Saturday of May Nightmare if they dismiss this one because it’s a colt
coming in from overseas. Although
trained by top European trainer and owned by top European owner and ridden by
top European jockey, has an American pedigree.
Despite breaking its maiden at The Curragh on grass and winning the
Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Turf, this half-brother to Beholder and $3million baby’s
American pedigree is equally as strong on the dirt. Mendelssohn stamped himself as a top
contender for the fashion he won the UAE Derby on Dubai World Cup day at
Meydan. Usually I make argument for the
UAE Derby winner as a Locks contender by citing that if they ran in the Dubai
World Cup would have only been a few lengths behind the winner. In the case of Mendelssohn and extrapolating
the time he ran, he would have WON the Dubai World Cup which included horses
like West Coast, Unbridled Forever, Thunder Snow etc.
15
Instilled Regard 50-1
Owner: OXO
Equine LLC
Trainer: Jerry
Hollendorfer
Jockey: Drayden
Van Dyke
Sire : Arch
Dam: Enhancing
by Forestry
Race Record:
7:2.2.1
CSI Figures: 98-103-107
Instilled
Regard was another $1 million purchase for owner Lawrence Best, who made his
money by investing into healthcare businesses. Instilled Regard was one of Larry’s
four $1m juveniles – he bought at the 2yo sales. The other 3 have raced a total
of 5 times for a $5,750 in earnings – again demonstrating that $1million
purchases don’t guarantee success – but there are some that would be willing to
pay over $1 million for a horse to run in the Kentucky Derby which Larry was
able to do. But the odds of actually getting a horse in the Kentucky Derby are
a lot lower than you’d think – if we just limit the universe of horses eligible
to run in the Kentucky Derby to colts foaled in North America as it is about
97% of the population of Derby runners – the foal class of 2015 (3yos in 2018)
was about 22,000 divide that by half for horses born as colts – 11,000 divide
that by a number of runners 20 = 1 in 550 colts make it to the Derby. Certainly, all things are not equal and that
is where confirmation (body shape), pedigree and training come in to either
decrease or increase the odds. As to
Instilled Regard’s Derby chances – coming in with two 4th place
finishes doesn’t show that this horse want to or is able to win against the top
competition.
16 Magnum
Moon 6-1
Owner: Robert
& Lawana Low
Trainer: Todd
Pletcher
Jockey: Luis
Saez
Sire : Malibu
Moon $75,000
Dam: Dazzling
Song by Unbridled’s Song
Race
Record: 4:4.0.0
CSI Figures:103-105-109
Found the Locks Analysis of another 4
for 4 promising colt that was unraced as a 2yo. The Locks rightly dismissed
Verrazano in the 2013 Derby who was 4-1 morning line as the colt finished 14th.
Its worthy to note that Magnum Moon’s
speed figs do not stack up against Verrazano’s in 2013. As with Verrazano another Pletcher trainee, the
Locks is going to dismiss Magnum Moon. Final time in the Arkansas Derby was a
full 1.6 seconds slower than the older horses running the same distance the race
before. Magnum Moon drifted out 7 wide signaling a tired finish.
Named after either the first European explorer to
sail into New York Harbor or the bridge that spans the narrows that creates
such harbor connecting Brooklyn to Staten Island - but there is not much
outer-borough about this colt. Purchased for $250k, a son of a
$60k sire and out of a Giant’s Causeway mare giving the horse near regal
bloodlines. Running style also is quite haughty - as if the colt knows
he is the best in the land and dares others to catch him. A perfect 4
for 4 with the highest last 3 race average speed figs if you are using Beyers,
Brisnet or CSIs. Won the Tampa Derby with ease and held off all comers in
the Wood. Will likely be the post time favorite. All sounds very
good.....but.....just like those driving over the Verrazano Bridge for the
first time and realize there is a $15 toll - those betting on this colt
may have some unwelcome surprises. First off, this More Than Ready colt
will follow the footsteps of his sire and will likely be close or near the lead
during the race only to give way in the last furlong. Verrazano seems to
have peaked in performance at a mile distance and the stretch out for a full
mile and a quarter may be too much. Also last workout was nothing splashy
described as “just OK”. This colt has many similarities to last
years Derby runner up Bodemeister - as Bodemeister liked to be on or near the
lead and was unraced as a 2yo - as noted above - we haven’t seen an unraced as
a 2yo Derby winner since 1882. Like Bodemeister, this colt may be
talented enough to place but I don’t see the favorite in the winner’s circle.
17 Solomini 30-1
Owner: Zayat
Racing LLC
Trainer: Bob
Baffert
Jockey: Flavien
Prat
Sire : Curlin $100,000
Dam: Surf Song
by Storm Cat
Race
Record: 6:1.3.2
CSI Figures:
99-101-106
Solomini
appears to be just a step slower than others in this race with only 1 maiden
win in 6 starts. The speed figs support
that fact - sub 100 last race C-Speed
Index figure, lack of triple digit Brisnet in last 2 races, and Beyers in the
low 90s. Solomini’s last race was a 3rd in Arkansas Derby, no horse
has won the Derby after a 3rd place finish since 1990. Same connections as American Pharoah but
certainly not coming into (or leaving) the race with the same resume as the
Triple Crown winner.
18 Vino
Rosso 12-1
Owner: Repole
Stable and St. Elias Stable
Trainer: Todd
Pletcher
Jockey: John
Velazquez
Sire : Curlin $150,000
Dam: Mythical
Bride by Street Cry (IRE)
Race
Record: 5:3.0.1
CSI Figures:
103-91-102
Vino Rosso aka
Red Wine is owned by a Queens guy (made $$ from VitaminWater) who thinks a good
red wine comes out of the refrigerator.
Vino Rosso has several positives – a pedigree for the Kentucky Derby, 3
wins including a victory off the pace at the Wood Memorial, good closing speed,
Kentucky Derby winning trainer, and solid speed figures. But the Locks is looking at others as the
Wood Memorial hasn’t produced even in the money finisher since 2003 when Funny
Cide and Empire Maker finished 1st/2nd in Derby after
prepping in the Wood.
19 Noble
Indy 30-1
Owner: WinStar
Farm LLC and Repole Stable
Trainer: Todd
Pletcher
Jockey: Florent
Geroux
Sire : Take
Charge Indy $17,500
Dam: Noble Maz
by Storm Boot
Race Record:
4:3.0.1
CSI Figures:
99-103-108
After the race
if this one wins – I can always point to the fact I should not have ignored
favorable trends – increasing speed figs in each of its races and a 4-race
career with no bad races – 3 wins and a 3rd after a troubled
trip. But will not keep this one in the
mix as Noble Indy doesn’t appear to be a horse that will be there in the end – not
only a slow final split and late BrisNet rating and a slow time compared to
older handicap horses is a detracting factor – the fact that John Velazquez has
selected Vino Rosso to ride when was Noble Indy’s regular rider.
20 Combatant 50-1
Owner: Winchell
Thoroughbreds LLC
Trainer: Steven
Asmussen
Jockey: Ricardo
Santana
Sire : Scat Daddy
Dam: Border
Dispute by Boundary
Race
Record: 7:1.3.1
CSI Figures: 99-101-95
During the 17
year between 1993-2009, 4 times (approx. 24%) did a horse that came in 4th
in its last prep race won the Derby. Of the 4 horses in the field that came in
4th in their last race, Combatant seems to be the one most likely to
win – increasing speed figs, last pace Brisnet fig of 116, two turn win on the
Churchill Downs oval, despite the 4th place finish – no real
clunkers on the resume. But cant avoid
fact that only has 1 win, speed figs are still steps slower than the top
horses, jockey Ricardo Santana has an average finish of 13th in 3
Kentucky Derby mounts. Could finish in
top half of field and beat its odds but unlikely to win.
The Locks Bets are;
$40 Win Audible
= $40
$1 Exacta All
over Audible = $19
$5WP My Boy
Jack = $10
$2 Exacta Box: Audible,
Mendelssohn, My Boy Jack, Justify = $24
$1 Trifecta
Box: Audible, Mendelssohn, My Boy Jack, Justify =$24
Wet Track added
bet: $1 Exacta Box: Audible, My Boy Jack,
Justify, Flameaway, Lone Sailor = $20
Total: $137
Kentucky Oaks
◎ 7 Rayya 12-1
○ 11 My Miss
Lilly 10-1
▲ 10 Midnight
Bisou 5-2
△ 13 Eskimo Kisses 15-1
2000 Guineas
◎ 14 Saxon Warrior 11-2
○ 2 Elarqam
4-1
▲ 11 Raid
33-1
△ 7 James Garfield 20-1
[i] If
this horse wins, the Locks on the next airline flight will wear a Pink Women’s
Sized Medium Tom Brady jersey.
