The Belmont Stakes is the third leg of the brutal US Triple Crown and like its English equivalent, the St. Leger, represents the longest leg and a true "test of champions". The Belmont is run around Belmont’s “Big Sandy” oval at 1 1/2 mile -- a distance that these horses have never run and will likely never run at again.
Belmont straddles the narrow border of Queens and “Long Island” and sits in the small Congressional District that is adjacent to the CD that the embattled, Anthony Weiner represents. Aptly named, Weiner is grasping to a thin thread to his Congressional post which he has a tiny chance of holding onto. Some gratuitous facts, Weiner supposedly likes shrimp scampi and likes the children’s book Charlotte’s Web, which features a pig that was a puny runt. Like Brett Favre, maybe this guy did himself a disservice in emailing about such underwhelming pictures. But, considering Marv Albert just signed a deal with CBS to call NFL games and I just saw Eliot Spitzer on CNN and Mr. Favre in a Wrangler commercial. Weiner’s better days may be ahead.....ugh.
The Locks are coming in late for this race as I’ve just returned Thursday night from a trip to the Asia-Pacific.....including spending some days in Sydney where many of the pubs are located in small hotels and feature TAB machines. TAB Sportsbet is like a mini – OTB in the corner of the pub with a few TV screens dedicated to the races ....with races from across Australia and Europe being broadcast and bet upon by a few mates in the pub. G'day! Seems as though those betting don’t actually handicap a race but bet odds movements and lucky #s, so if you actually take time and analyze a race you may be able to get some good odds and results. I ended up cashing tickets on each of the few races I bet as well as making a king’s ransom betting against the Queen in the Epsom Derby, which was shown at 1am in Oz.
On to the Belmont.... Here is the field:
# HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER
1 Master of Hounds
ML: 10-1 G. Gomez A. O'Brien
2 Stay Thirsty
ML: 20-1 J. Castellano T. Pletcher
3 Ruler On Ice
ML: 20-1 J. Valdivia, Jr. K. Breen
4 Santiva
ML: 15-1 S. Bridgmohan E. Kenneally
5 Brilliant Speed
ML: 15-1 J. Rosario 126 T. Albertrani
6 Nehro
ML: 4-1 C. Nakatani S. Asmussen
7 Monzon
ML: 30-1 J. Lezcano I. Correas, IV
8 Prime Cut
ML: 15-1 E. Prado N. Howard
9 Animal Kingdom
ML: 2-1 J. Velazquez H. Motion
10 Mucho Macho Man
ML: 10-1 R. Dominguez K. Ritvo
11 Isn't He Perfect
ML: 30-1 R. Maragh D. Shivmangal
12 Shackleford
ML: 9-2 J. Castanon D. Romans
Here is the analysis:
Master of Hounds
The hope of the Irish returns to the Triple Crown after a respectable closing 5th in the Kentucky Derby. Garrett Gomez stores his tack on the West Coast but rides MoH again. Gomez raced at Belmont over Memorial Day weekend to get a feel of the strip with good success 3 wins on 6 mounts. However, due to MoH’s Irish roots, colt has been bet down to 5-1 in early betting and would suspect that NY’s Irish-American betting populace will ensure this live horse is overbet but still Consider.
Stay Thirsty
Considering the heat that there has been in NY this last week you may become thirsty ahead of the race. Unfortunately, the Belmont hasn’t the same drink tradition as the Kentucky Derby (Mint Julep) .......actually has had 2 “official” drinks. First was the highly undrinkable White Carnation (vodka, peach schnapps, orange juice) and now since 1997, the Belmont Breeze is official drink of the Stakes. The Belmont Breeze borrows mint, bourbon and simple syrup from the Julep but is made unique with Sherry, and lemon, orange and cranberry juice hmmmm...doesn’t really scream NY to me....I say the NY Racing Association should make it simple and just make the Manhattan (whiskey/vermouth) the official drink.....but then again, I know what only one Manhattan cocktail can potentially do to me and does the NYRA want 70,000 lousy drunks on their hands? As its after Memorial Day, I will be drinking a Dark and Stormy ahead of post time..... Stay Thirsty likes the NY home cooking with 2 wins and 2 places in 4 starts within NY State and 3 out of the money showings when outside NY State. But seems as though Stay Thirsty peaked with its Gotham win. Pass.
Ruler On Ice
Since 2002, the Belmont has been won by a horse that neither raced in the Kentucky Derby or Preakness 4 times at odds of 70-1, 38-1, 4-1,13-1. Probably the best of this year’s non-Triple Crown runners in the Belmont . Hasn’t raced out of the money in races since its maiden race. Appears to want to go longer as last three races shows “closed strongly”, “closed late”, “closed gap” in its running line. Want to take a flyer on an unlikely horse to win?, this may be your choice – morning line 30-1, early line actually dropped to 42-1.
Santiva
Distance pedigree and a closing 6th in the Kentucky Derby and a wide-open track give trainer Eddie Kenneally some hope for this one. Thinking that after Saturday, Eddie will still be looking for a spot to get 2nd win for Santiva. Pass.
Brilliant Speed
Brilliant Speed, Santiva and Master of Hounds came across the line within a head of each other so Brilliant Speed’s 7th place finish easily could have been the 5th place finish that MoH ended up with. Brilliant Speed knows something about close finishes, as the horse was a short neck and a nose from being perfect in 2011 prior to the Kentucky Derby. Has shown steady improvement in Beyer figures over last 8 races. Bred for distance. Consider.
Nehro
Since 1998 only Afleet Alex in 2005 and Point Given in 2001 have won the Belmont after racing in both the Preakness and Kentucky Derby, as such extra consideration should be given to those that passed the Preakness to be fresh for the Belmont. Nehro was in position to win the Kentucky Derby but probably moved a bit too early to claim the lead before being tracked down by Animal Kingdom. Nehro has been the bridesmaid in each of its three past graded stakes races – can the horse win? Horse has the pedigree to go long but does the horse have the heart to win? Being fresh and talented maybe enough to go
on. Consider.
Monzon
Named after Argentine boxint great, Carlos Monzon....but doesn’t seem to have a fighters heart after losing by 7+ lengths in each of this geldings (watch out, Rep. Weiner) 3 tries at graded stakes. Its list of stakes it has run in, Peter Pan, Sam Davis, Gnomes’ Gold, Count Fleet and Bourbon sounds like a "need to have" checklist for a freaky warehouse party in Red Hook, Brooklyn. Pass.
Prime Cut
Prime Cut is owned by Texas banker-cum-horseman, Donald Adam. So it is unlikely that this Bernstein colt is named as homage to the numerous cathedrals of beef that exist in NY. For me I don’t have a “go-to” when needing a beef fix in NY – I know that is probably a pre requisite for “real man” status. Actually my ideal beef experience, isn’t what the typical NY steakhouse offers, it is an 8oz marbleized piece of beer fed wagyu leaving you wanting and literally dreaming for more. I do consider the ability to properly read a racehorse’s past performances a “real man” pre-req. And looking at this horse’s PPs, there are some things to consider like the fact horse hasn’t been out of the money since its debut and then looking at the horses March 26 winning race at Fair Grounds, same track and day as the Louisiana Derby, horse actually ran faster than the winner of Louisiana Derby, a race that also included Belmont contenders 4-1 Nehro and 10-1 MMM. Prime Cut’s early line odds are 18-1.
Animal Kingdom
The Triple Crown is brutal - 3 races within 5 weeks at full fields and at distances these 3yos are unfamiliar with. Although previously lightly raced, has Animal Kingdom already done too much in recent weeks to put in a 3rd gutsy performance? As noted only special horses, Afleet Alex and Point Given has been able to come up big in the Belmont after running in the grueling Preakness and Kentucky Derby in the past 12 years. But then again look at the 5 year period, 1994 to 1998 where 4 of the Belmont winners also competed in both other Triple Crown races. Animal Kingdom seems ready with a bullet : 47 while training at this track last week. AK has a distance pedigree and still should be considered to win but its 2-1 odds are too short to key.
Mucho Macho Man
Recently deceased Randy “Macho Man” Savage had some bad luck over the years including the early death of his real life wife “ the beautiful Miss Elizabeth”, his crushing then-career ending loss at Wrestle Mania VII, and his untimely death in a single vehicle accident last month, it isn’t much of a surprise Mucho Macho Man hasn’t had much racing luck himself. MMM has been out of the money only 2 times in his career and both times are when the horse has lost a horseshoe. These mishaps have led trainer Kathy Ritvo to get a new type of horseshoe as well as a new blacksmith for MMM. Its good to see that there are still some jobs that you typically only find at Colonial Williamsburg are still around but I’ve been checking Monster.com and have yet to find a glass blower position paying six figures.... With new shoes and a new jock maybe enough to overcome past bad luck. Consider.
Isn't He Perfect
Add the Belmont to the long list of double-digit length losses this horse has tallied up. Pass.
Shackleford
Since Affirmed wired the field in the 1978 Belmont Stakes to win the last Triple Crown in the US, only Swale in 1984 and Da’ Tara in 2008 have won the Belmont wire-to-wire. Also must think does Shackleford have enough in the tank to compete in the Belmont? Shackleford v Animal Kingdom in a Triple Crown rubber match is good marketing but may not be how the race will finish. NY restaurateur and racing fan Danny Meyer (Union Square Café, Tabla, Blue Smoke et al) is offering free custard at his Shake Shack outlets if Shackleford wins. I for one am a big fan of Mr. Meyer’s shakes even though I can’t properly digest lactose...the hand-spun chocolate malted is actually worth a day of a sour stomach. I feel Meyer’s shops won’t be overflowing after the race as Shake-le- ford may have run his best races already... but horse has shown too much heart to not to consider.
Here are the Locks:
$2 Exacta box (Master of Hounds, MMM, Animal Kingdom, Nehro, Prime
Cut, Brilliant Speed) = 6 x 5 x $2....$60
$5 WPS Nehro = $15
$1 Exacta Ruler on Ice over all = 11 x 1 x $1 =$11
$1 Exacta All over Ruler on Ice = 11 x 1 x $1 =$11
Total Bets = $97
Taking position that the Triple Crown horses are the better horses but replacing Shackleford who has done so much already with Prime Cut. Nehro is fresh... but do want to take a flyer on Ruler on Ice as horse has enough for me to like at 40+-1.
